2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

31·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

41

Model margin

-2.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.066EPA / play-0.249
  • 43.3%Success rate33.5%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.215
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.37CPOE-7.94
  • 46.9%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 2.13Points / drive0.77
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:0012Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:38329Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 13:3536Punt7–0
ATLQ1 11:31973Touchdown14–0
CARQ1 6:513-4Punt14–0
ATLQ1 5:27415Punt14–0
CARQ1 3:1032Punt14–0
ATLQ1 1:4048Punt14–0
CARQ2 14:22610Punt14–0
ATLQ2 11:221764Field goal17–0
CARQ2 2:34517Punt17–0
ATLQ2 0:40513Turnover17–0
ATLQ3 15:00418Punt17–0
CARQ3 12:50581Touchdown17–7
ATLQ3 10:2941Punt17–7
CARQ3 8:39641Turnover on downs17–7
ATLQ3 6:18544Touchdown24–7
CARQ3 4:41628Punt24–7
ATLQ3 1:1179Punt24–7
CARQ4 12:45652Field goal24–10
ATLQ4 9:44635Punt24–10
CARQ4 6:412-1Turnover24–10
ATLQ4 6:04416Touchdown31–10
CARQ4 4:1234Punt31–10
ATLQ4 3:1232Punt31–10
CARQ4 2:06950End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3422711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner281124.03
Gartrell Johnson681.30
Matt Ryan144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White814790
Harry Douglas11460
Tony Gonzalez47281
Michael Jenkins25260
Brian Finneran22130
Michael Turner11120
Eric Weems1170
Gartrell Johnson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen14/2410701
Armanti Edwards1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart181337.40
Mike Goodson9707.81
Steve Smith199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell69380
David Gettis24220
Tyrell Sutton33200
Steve Smith23170
Mike Goodson1260
Dante Rosario1240
Jonathan Stewart0100
Gary Barnidge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.36