Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
41
Model margin
-2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.249
- 43.3%Success rate33.5%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.215
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.37CPOE-7.94
- 46.9%Third-down rate30.0%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 2.13Points / drive0.77
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/34 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 28 | 112 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 14 | 79 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 14/24 | 107 | 0 | 1 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 133 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.36