2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

10·6

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.019
  • 41.7%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.015
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.056
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.81CPOE-4.95
  • 40.4%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.69
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:2567Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:5847Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 9:48623Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 7:1032Turnover3–0
MIAQ1 5:43626Touchdown10–0
NYJQ1 2:48838Punt10–0
MIAQ2 12:5935Punt10–0
NYJQ2 11:25619Turnover on downs10–0
MIAQ2 8:0821Turnover10–0
NYJQ2 7:22621Field goal10–3
MIAQ2 4:33518Turnover10–3
NYJQ2 1:52519Punt10–3
MIAQ2 0:5939Punt10–3
MIAQ3 15:0031Punt10–3
NYJQ3 12:44727Punt10–3
MIAQ3 9:1235Punt10–3
NYJQ3 7:4630Punt10–3
MIAQ3 6:46432Turnover10–3
NYJQ3 4:3836Punt10–3
MIAQ3 3:2830Punt10–3
NYJQ3 2:58525Punt10–3
MIAQ3 1:0231Punt10–3
NYJQ4 14:39731Turnover on downs10–3
MIAQ4 11:3333Punt10–3
NYJQ4 10:351169Field goal10–6
MIAQ4 5:213-2Punt10–6
NYJQ4 3:4030Punt10–6
MIAQ4 3:1935Punt10–6
NYJQ4 2:1689Turnover on downs10–6
MIAQ4 0:4700End of half10–6

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne5/185510
Ronnie Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown16553.40
Ricky Williams10343.40
Chad Henne471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Fasano22330
Brandon Marshall26161
Davone Bess1760
Ricky Williams0100
Ronnie Brown0200
Marlon Moore0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/4421601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson19492.60
Mark Sanchez22010.00
Shonn Greene8172.10
Brad Smith210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery512690
Santonio Holmes29570
Dustin Keller312340
Shonn Greene34290
Braylon Edwards12170
LaDainian Tomlinson2350
Joe McKnight1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.31