Closing spread
NYJ -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.019
- 41.7%Success rate41.8%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.015
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.056
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.81CPOE-4.95
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 1.34Points / drive1.69
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 5/18 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/44 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 12 | 69 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 12 | 34 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.31