2010 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

34·18

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

-1.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.066EPA / play-0.117
  • 43.3%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.072
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.194
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.37CPOE-1.80
  • 46.9%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.36
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001390Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 7:281551Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 14:1438Punt7–7
ATLQ2 12:071457Field goal10–7
SEAQ2 4:5130Punt10–7
ATLQ2 4:2130Turnover10–7
SEAQ2 4:0037Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 2:051460Touchdown17–10
SEAQ2 0:1900End of half17–10
ATLQ3 15:00725Punt23–10
SEAQ3 10:331-4Opp touchdown24–10
SEAQ3 10:12617Turnover24–10
ATLQ3 8:25925Field goal27–10
SEAQ3 4:20312Turnover27–10
ATLQ3 3:12421Touchdown34–10
SEAQ3 0:5237Punt34–10
ATLQ4 14:5035Punt34–10
SEAQ4 13:091274Touchdown34–18
ATLQ4 8:2939Punt34–18
SEAQ4 6:2538Punt34–18
ATLQ4 4:54416Punt34–18
SEAQ4 3:39716Turnover on downs34–18
ATLQ4 1:5600End of half34–18

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3517431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner25823.30
Matt Ryan661.00
Gartrell Johnson144.00
Harry Douglas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White713651
Michael Jenkins34481
Tony Gonzalez48260
Justin Peelle11100
Harry Douglas13100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst8/168300
Matt Hasselbeck10/177102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch12605.01
Charlie Whitehurst3103.31
Justin Forsett294.50
Leon Washington166.00
Matt Hasselbeck242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams813660
John Carlson11310
Marshawn Lynch11170
Cameron Morrah22140
Ben Obomanu1870
Justin Forsett2470
Brandon Stokley1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.83