Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
-1.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.117
- 43.3%Success rate38.3%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.194
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.37CPOE-1.80
- 46.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 2.13Points / drive1.36
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/35 | 174 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 25 | 82 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 7 | 13 | 65 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 8/16 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 10/17 | 71 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 8 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83