2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

17·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

MIA -5.5

Total

40

Model margin

+4.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.071
  • 40.1%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.94CPOE-1.81
  • 38.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.34
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00736Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 11:0473Punt0–0
MIAQ1 7:4839Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:47420Punt0–0
MIAQ1 2:57620Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 0:031050Touchdown7–0
MIAQ2 10:373-6Punt7–0
BUFQ2 8:33432Field goal10–0
MIAQ2 6:34855Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 2:37654Turnover10–7
MIAQ2 0:33510Missed field goal10–7
BUFQ3 15:0031Punt10–7
MIAQ3 13:5833Punt10–7
BUFQ3 12:391186Touchdown17–7
MIAQ3 6:14847Missed field goal17–7
BUFQ3 1:58513Punt17–7
MIAQ4 14:011187Touchdown17–14
BUFQ4 7:02521Punt17–14
MIAQ4 4:31950Missed field goal17–14
BUFQ4 1:4832Punt17–14
MIAQ4 0:41315Turnover17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/2622321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson15362.40
Ryan Fitzpatrick3196.30
C.J. Spiller9161.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson69691
David Nelson33611
Naaman Roosevelt23350
Donald Jones14290
C.J. Spiller22210
Scott Chandler1180
Fred Jackson0200
Jonathan Stupar1100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne33/4527611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown10393.91
Ricky Williams7192.70
Kevin Curtis166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall11121061
Davone Bess913780
Ricky Williams56340
Anthony Fasano35300
Patrick Cobbs13130
Kevin Curtis1260
Ronnie Brown1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.17