Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.071
- 40.1%Success rate41.7%
- -0.089EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.94CPOE-1.81
- 38.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.34
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/26 | 223 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 33/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Curtis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 11 | 12 | 106 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 9 | 13 | 78 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Curtis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17