2010 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

22·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+4.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.035
  • 41.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -4.95CPOE+3.44
  • 40.2%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.89
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PIT
NYJQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 14:48619Punt7–0
NYJQ1 11:0332Punt7–0
PITQ1 10:03620Punt7–0
NYJQ1 7:271154Punt7–0
PITQ1 0:411696Touchdown7–7
NYJQ2 7:29856Field goal10–7
PITQ2 2:481044Field goal10–10
NYJQ2 0:33312End of half10–10
PITQ3 15:00974Touchdown10–17
NYJQ3 9:03851Touchdown17–17
PITQ3 5:14628Punt17–17
NYJQ3 1:541250Field goal20–17
PITQ4 10:07418Punt20–17
NYJQ4 7:091044Punt22–17
PITQ4 2:451-3Safety22–17
NYJQ4 2:3837Punt22–17
PITQ4 2:081282End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez19/2917000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson11494.50
Shonn Greene12403.30
Mark Sanchez3155.01
Brad Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards8111000
Santonio Holmes610400
Dustin Keller34190
LaDainian Tomlinson1160
Shonn Greene1250
Matthew Mulligan0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/4426410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall17995.81
Ben Roethlisberger22512.50
Mike Wallace188.00
Mewelde Moore471.80
Isaac Redman177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace7101020
Emmanuel Sanders713780
Hines Ward23340
Matt Spaeth38271
Antonio Brown23150
Antwaan Randle El1180
Mewelde Moore1100
Rashard Mendenhall0100
David Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.27