Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.035
- 41.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.95CPOE+3.44
- 40.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.69Points / drive1.89
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 19/29 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 8 | 11 | 100 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 6 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/44 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 17 | 99 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 13 | 78 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 3 | 8 | 27 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.27