2010 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

17·14

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2

Total

50

Model margin

+3.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.066
  • 46.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +5.83CPOE+0.37
  • 48.8%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.13
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:3530Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:39416Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:3433Punt0–0
NOQ1 8:5537Punt0–0
ATLQ1 7:34525Punt0–0
NOQ1 5:21737Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 1:02518Turnover3–0
NOQ2 13:38534Touchdown10–0
ATLQ2 11:181066Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 7:2835Punt10–7
ATLQ2 5:54411Punt10–7
NOQ2 4:16949Punt10–7
ATLQ2 0:1600End of half10–7
ATLQ3 15:001028Turnover10–7
NOQ3 10:51620Punt10–7
ATLQ3 7:25622Punt10–7
NOQ3 5:05618Punt10–7
ATLQ3 2:2338Punt10–7
NOQ3 0:29323Opp touchdown10–14
NOQ4 14:14543Turnover10–14
ATLQ4 12:01411Punt10–14
NOQ4 10:351390Touchdown17–14
ATLQ4 3:24424Punt17–14
NOQ4 2:44523End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees35/4930212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas19633.31
Devery Henderson199.00
Julius Jones122.00
Reggie Bush100.00
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Meachem10131010
Lance Moore47480
Pierre Thomas77390
Devery Henderson34350
Jimmy Graham45261
Marques Colston25210
Reggie Bush44200
Jeremy Shockey11120

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan15/2914810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner17482.80
Matt Ryan4266.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White35431
Michael Jenkins59400
Tony Gonzalez23120
Justin Peelle11100
Brian Finneran0100
Michael Turner0100
Harry Douglas0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.49