Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
50
Model margin
+3.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.066
- 46.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- +5.83CPOE+0.37
- 48.8%Third-down rate46.9%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.88Points / drive2.13
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/49 | 302 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 10 | 13 | 101 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 15/29 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49