Closing spread
ATL -14
Total
41
Model margin
+7.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play+0.066
- 33.5%Success rate43.3%
- -0.274EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.3%
- -7.94CPOE+0.37
- 30.0%Third-down rate46.9%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 0.77Points / drive2.13
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 19/33 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 60 | 60.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/32 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 4/6 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 6 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+7.02