2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

10·31

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -14

Total

41

Model margin

+7.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.249EPA / play+0.066
  • 33.5%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.274EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.215EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.1%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -7.94CPOE+0.37
  • 30.0%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 44.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 0.77Points / drive2.13
  • 3.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001267Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:0434Punt0–7
ATLQ1 8:29639Turnover0–7
CARQ1 5:243-2Opp touchdown0–14
CARQ1 4:243-1Punt0–14
ATLQ1 2:12755Turnover on downs0–14
CARQ2 14:11665Turnover0–14
ATLQ2 11:45849Turnover on downs0–14
CARQ2 8:13423Punt0–14
ATLQ2 6:0536Punt0–14
CARQ2 4:3475Turnover on downs0–14
ATLQ2 1:44745Touchdown0–21
CARQ2 0:5113End of half0–21
CARQ3 15:00687Field goal3–21
ATLQ3 12:30516Field goal3–24
CARQ3 9:4640Turnover3–24
ATLQ3 7:571129Touchdown3–31
CARQ3 2:00520Punt3–31
ATLQ4 14:52524Punt3–31
CARQ4 11:1630Punt3–31
ATLQ4 10:50613Punt3–31
CARQ4 8:1737Punt3–31
ATLQ4 6:40510Punt3–31
CARQ4 3:211080Touchdown10–31
ATLQ4 0:2300End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen19/3318211
Brandon LaFell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon LaFell16060.00
Jonathan Stewart13312.40
David Gettis11919.00
Mike Goodson2147.00
Tyrell Sutton2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell48630
David Clowney24560
David Gettis48330
Tyrell Sutton33210
Dante Rosario22190
Jeff King2311
Gary Barnidge0100
Mike Goodson23-110

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3223620
Chris Redman4/62000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner17673.91
Matt Ryan273.50
Gartrell Johnson210.50
Chris Redman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White68621
Tony Gonzalez68531
Michael Jenkins58520
Brian Finneran22260
Justin Peelle24220
Harry Douglas11190
Michael Turner0100
Michael Palmer0100
Gartrell Johnson11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+7.02