2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

7·38

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

44

Model margin

+6.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.191
  • 41.7%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.155EPA / rush+0.096
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -1.81CPOE+2.77
  • 40.4%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.76
  • 2.6%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:0056Turnover0–0
NEQ1 13:05647Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:363-2Punt0–7
NEQ1 9:0120Turnover0–7
MIAQ1 8:51612Missed field goal0–7
NEQ1 6:03470Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 4:121040Punt0–14
NEQ2 14:2038Punt0–14
MIAQ2 12:50412Punt0–14
NEQ2 11:12717Punt0–14
MIAQ2 8:07646Turnover0–14
NEQ2 4:29749Field goal0–17
MIAQ2 1:41413Opp touchdown0–24
MIAQ2 0:18220End of half0–24
NEQ3 15:00888Touchdown0–31
MIAQ3 11:304-16Punt0–31
NEQ3 10:15980Touchdown0–38
MIAQ3 6:33534Turnover on downs0–38
NEQ3 4:551154Turnover on downs0–38
MIAQ4 14:27637Punt0–38
NEQ4 12:231678Turnover on downs0–38
MIAQ4 2:48648Touchdown7–38
NEQ4 2:11312End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Thigpen10/2116910
Chad Henne6/167101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Thigpen3217.00
Ronnie Brown6142.30
Ricky Williams650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall512970
Marlon Moore27460
Ronnie Brown34390
Davone Bess39351
Roberto Wallace22160
Ricky Williams0100
Mickey Shuler0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady10/1619920
Brian Hoyer7/1312210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis20804.01
Fred Taylor10353.50
Danny Woodhead2199.50
Sammy Morris5183.60
Thomas Clayton6172.80
Julian Edelman11313.00
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski6101021
Brandon Tate23821
Julian Edelman35720
Taylor Price34410
Alge Crumpler12101
Sammy Morris1380
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.74