Closing spread
NE -4
Total
44
Model margin
+6.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.191
- 41.7%Success rate48.7%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.155EPA / rush+0.096
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -1.81CPOE+2.77
- 40.4%Third-down rate48.3%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.34Points / drive2.76
- 2.6%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 10/21 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 6/16 | 71 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 12 | 97 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 2 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 9 | 35 | 1 |
| Roberto Wallace | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mickey Shuler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 10/16 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 7/13 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Thomas Clayton | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 102 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 3 | 82 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Taylor Price | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.74