Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.066
- 45.9%Success rate43.3%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.3%
- +5.31CPOE+0.37
- 41.3%Third-down rate46.9%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.13
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/36 | 366 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 25 | 66 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 8 | 10 | 101 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/29 | 186 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 6 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.83