2010 · DIV

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

48·21

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.066
  • 45.9%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +5.31CPOE+0.37
  • 41.3%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.13
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:01327Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 8:55748Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 5:001476Touchdown7–13
ATLQ2 12:0400Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 11:501285Touchdown14–14
ATLQ2 6:06829Turnover14–14
GBQ2 2:20780Touchdown21–14
ATLQ2 0:426-5Opp touchdown28–14
GBQ3 15:001280Touchdown35–14
ATLQ3 8:2832Punt35–14
GBQ3 7:29850Touchdown42–14
ATLQ3 2:41883Touchdown42–21
GBQ4 14:2100Missed field goal42–21
GBQ4 14:2137Missed field goal42–21
ATLQ4 12:5550Turnover42–21
GBQ4 11:39719Field goal45–21
ATLQ4 6:2957Turnover45–21
GBQ4 5:32519Field goal48–21
ATLQ4 1:563-4Punt48–21
GBQ4 0:2300End of half48–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/3636630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks25662.60
Aaron Rodgers2136.51
Brandon Jackson11313.00
Matt Flynn1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings8101010
Jordy Nelson88791
Donald Driver66760
James Jones44751
Andrew Quarless22140
Brandon Jackson1370
Donald Lee0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/2918612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner10393.91
Gartrell Johnson144.00
Matt Ryan100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Jenkins68670
Roddy White610571
Brian Finneran46470
Tony Gonzalez1170
Harry Douglas1120
Michael Turner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.83