Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.101
- 42.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.054
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.57CPOE-5.39
- 39.8%Third-down rate36.9%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.58Points / drive1.20
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/32 | 195 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 14 | 169 | 12.1 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Donald Jones | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 19/27 | 266 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 27 | 94 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tim Tebow | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Hill | 5 | 6 | 89 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04