Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- QuestionableSteve JohnsonWRGroin· Limited
- ProbableKraig UrbikGBack· Limited
- ProbableBrad SmithWRGroin· Full
Jets
- OutDennis LandoltGKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutEric SmithSHip· DNP
- QuestionableDustin KellerTEHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMike DevitoDTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableSione PouhaDTBack· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MooreGHip· Limited
- ProbableBryan ThomasLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChaz SchilensWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableDavid HarrisLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableEllis LanksterCBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableJoe McKnightRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJosh BushSConcussion· Full
- ProbableLaRon LandrySHeel· Full
- ProbableNick BelloreLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableSantonio HolmesWRRibs· Full
- ProbableStephen HillWRCalf· Full
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.101
- 42.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.054
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.57CPOE-5.39
- 39.8%Third-down rate36.9%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.58Points / drive1.20
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:46 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:51 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 6:02 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:24 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 14:53 | 3 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| BUF | Q2 12:40 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:06 | 14 | 73 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| BUF | Q2 1:57 | 1 | 30 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:36 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| BUF | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–27 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 7–34 |
| BUF | Q3 13:41 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–34 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:48 | 4 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–41 |
| BUF | Q3 9:38 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–41 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:26 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 14–41 |
| BUF | Q4 14:11 | 14 | 87 | Touchdown | 21–41 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–41 |
| BUF | Q4 6:52 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 28–41 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:58 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 28–48 |
| BUF | Q4 1:17 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 28–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/32 | 195 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 14 | 169 | 12.1 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Donald Jones | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 19/27 | 266 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 27 | 94 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tim Tebow | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Hill | 5 | 6 | 89 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04