2012 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

10·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.018
  • 44.9%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.038
  • 11.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.55CPOE-4.01
  • 42.2%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.74
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:401380Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 5:2036Punt0–7
TBQ1 3:47432Field goal0–10
CARQ1 1:20842Punt0–10
TBQ2 11:381460Field goal0–13
CARQ2 2:55848Punt0–13
TBQ2 0:1500End of half0–13
TBQ3 15:00520Punt0–13
CARQ3 11:21570Touchdown7–13
TBQ3 8:5546Punt7–13
CARQ3 6:0310Turnover7–13
TBQ3 5:4915Punt7–13
TBQ3 5:1125Punt7–13
TBQ3 3:482-3Punt7–13
CARQ3 2:23621Turnover7–13
TBQ4 15:0035Punt7–13
CARQ4 13:21425Punt7–13
TBQ4 11:10625Field goal7–16
CARQ4 7:583-10Punt7–16
TBQ4 6:1434Punt7–16
CARQ4 5:06786Field goal10–16
TBQ4 2:46427End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3330312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kealoha Pilares155.00
Cam Newton540.80
DeAngelo Williams6-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith7111060
Brandon LaFell35651
Louis Murphy35630
Greg Olsen67560
DeAngelo Williams1150
Kealoha Pilares0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman16/2413810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin24954.00
D.J. Ware2147.00
Josh Freeman7131.90
LeGarrette Blount382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson410470
Dallas Clark11330
Doug Martin44230
Mike Williams23121
LeGarrette Blount1120
Preston Parker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.44