2012 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.018
- 44.9%Success rate41.0%
- +0.158EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.038
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.55CPOE-4.01
- 42.2%Third-down rate35.9%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.90Points / drive1.74
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/33 | 303 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kealoha Pilares | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 11 | 106 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kealoha Pilares | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 16/24 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 24 | 95 | 4.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.44