Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.025
- 41.6%Success rate41.5%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.043
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.17CPOE-0.27
- 34.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.71Points / drive1.80
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/37 | 221 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Armon Binns | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/29 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2/3 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83