Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
38
Model margin
+7.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.118
- 40.8%Success rate49.1%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.223
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.033
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.63CPOE+3.43
- 41.0%Third-down rate44.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.79Points / drive2.12
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2/12 | -7 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 128 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 3 | -22 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/34 | 380 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 9/11 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 16 | 123 | 7.7 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7 | 67 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 11 | 150 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 8 | 10 | 129 | 3 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.05