2009 · Week 6

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

0·59

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

38

Model margin

+7.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPatriots
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.118
  • 40.8%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.223
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.033
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.63CPOE+3.43
  • 41.0%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.12
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NE
TENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:22413Missed field goal0–0
TENQ1 10:2669Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:18579Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 5:5134Punt0–7
NEQ1 4:57663Field goal0–10
TENQ1 0:47649Turnover0–10
NEQ2 13:07765Touchdown0–17
TENQ2 9:5610Turnover0–17
NEQ2 9:43231Touchdown0–24
TENQ2 8:59317Turnover0–24
NEQ2 7:54465Touchdown0–31
TENQ2 6:2032Punt0–31
NEQ2 4:42671Touchdown0–38
TENQ2 1:5338Punt0–38
NEQ2 1:161049Touchdown0–45
TENQ2 0:1200End of half0–45
NEQ3 15:00950Touchdown0–52
TENQ3 10:13630Turnover on downs0–52
NEQ3 7:531266Touchdown0–59
TENQ3 0:11311Turnover0–59
NEQ4 14:18542Turnover on downs0–59
TENQ4 11:35858Turnover0–59
NEQ4 6:56528Punt0–59
TENQ4 4:044-1Punt0–59
NEQ4 2:3614Turnover on downs0–59
TENQ4 0:3500End of half0–59

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young0/2001
Kerry Collins2/12-701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson171287.50
Javon Ringer7476.70
LenDale White6152.50
Kerry Collins3-1-0.30
Vince Young2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alge Crumpler0100
Justin Gage0200
Bo Scaife0200
Chris Johnson0100
Kenny Britt0400
Nate Washington13-220

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/3438060
Brian Hoyer9/115200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney161237.71
BenJarvus Green-Ellis7679.60
Kevin Faulk155.00
Brian Hoyer6-2-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker10111502
Randy Moss8101293
Kevin Faulk33541
Julian Edelman66430
Sam Aiken47300
BenJarvus Green-Ellis23110
Laurence Maroney33100
Sammy Morris1130
Chris Baker1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.05