Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.026
- 44.8%Success rate42.0%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.107
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.22CPOE-2.00
- 40.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.83Points / drive1.49
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/29 | 233 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 22 | 155 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 7 | 9 | 44 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Limas Sweed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 23/38 | 221 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 11 | 15 | 112 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 5 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.20