2009 · Week 9

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.026
  • 44.8%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.107
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.22CPOE-2.00
  • 40.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.49
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
DENQ1 15:00856Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:24510Punt0–3
DENQ1 7:21734Punt0–3
PITQ1 3:12620Punt0–3
DENQ2 15:00419Opp touchdown7–3
DENQ2 12:501045Punt7–3
PITQ2 7:05626Punt7–3
DENQ2 2:47629Punt7–3
PITQ2 0:1100End of half7–3
PITQ3 15:00637Opp touchdown7–10
PITQ3 11:16480Touchdown14–10
DENQ3 9:09415Punt14–10
PITQ3 7:20982Turnover14–10
DENQ3 2:25424Punt14–10
PITQ4 15:0034Punt14–10
DENQ4 13:0933Punt14–10
PITQ4 12:04615Punt14–10
DENQ4 9:1320Turnover14–10
PITQ4 8:31325Touchdown21–10
DENQ4 7:0330Punt21–10
PITQ4 6:301179Touchdown28–10
DENQ4 1:22417Turnover28–10
PITQ4 0:1500End of half28–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/2923331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall221557.00
Mewelde Moore4184.50
Mike Wallace133.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes66930
Mike Wallace48691
Hines Ward79442
Heath Miller34180
Rashard Mendenhall1190
Limas Sweed0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton23/3822103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter9242.70
Knowshon Moreno530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall11151120
Eddie Royal510740
Daniel Graham13180
Jabar Gaffney2360
Brandon Stokley1140
Correll Buckhalter2240
Tony Scheffler1130
Knowshon Moreno0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.20