Closing spread
GB -5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.102
- 39.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.76CPOE+5.43
- 36.4%Third-down rate42.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 1.47Points / drive2.11
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 11/27 | 126 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bush | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/32 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.70