2012 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

10·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.102
  • 39.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.76CPOE+5.43
  • 36.4%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.11
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:373-1Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:26732Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:5736Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:3159Punt0–0
CHIQ1 4:374-5Punt0–0
GBQ1 2:351045Field goal0–3
CHIQ2 12:56825Punt0–3
GBQ2 7:541280Touchdown0–10
CHIQ2 1:50422Turnover0–10
GBQ2 1:07626Field goal0–13
CHIQ3 15:001253Field goal3–13
GBQ3 8:4939Punt3–13
CHIQ3 6:49617Turnover3–13
GBQ3 3:11534Turnover3–13
CHIQ3 0:5333Punt3–13
GBQ4 15:00521Field goal3–16
CHIQ4 11:3810Turnover3–22
GBQ4 11:22126Touchdown3–23
CHIQ4 11:17724Punt3–23
GBQ4 8:1410Turnover3–23
CHIQ4 8:04424Touchdown10–23
GBQ4 6:49624Punt10–23
CHIQ4 4:0950Turnover10–23
GBQ4 3:00212End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler11/2712614

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bush14543.90
Matt Forte7314.40
Jay Cutler11212.00
Armando Allen1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte45490
Brandon Marshall25240
Earl Bennett26210
Kellen Davis16211
Alshon Jeffery1270
Matt Spaeth1240
Devin Hester0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3221911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson20814.00
Randall Cobb12828.00
Alex Green221.00
Aaron Rodgers3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson69840
Cedric Benson44350
Tom Crabtree11271
Donald Driver11261
Jermichael Finley46260
Randall Cobb12200
D.J. Williams1160
James Jones25-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.70