2012 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

27·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.068EPA / play-0.002
  • 39.6%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -4.22CPOE+1.17
  • 30.6%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.71
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00410Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 13:13942Field goal3–7
CINQ1 9:011232Punt3–7
CLEQ1 2:39634Punt3–7
CINQ2 14:52874Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 10:27566Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 8:05825Field goal10–17
CLEQ2 4:45324Turnover10–17
CINQ2 3:42412Punt10–17
CLEQ2 1:51732End of half10–17
CINQ3 15:00780Touchdown10–24
CLEQ3 11:5832Punt10–24
CINQ3 10:13412Punt10–24
CLEQ3 7:51730Punt10–24
CINQ3 4:05411Turnover10–24
CLEQ3 2:19553Touchdown17–24
CINQ3 0:07877Touchdown17–31
CLEQ4 10:44880Touchdown24–31
CINQ4 7:111053Field goal24–34
CLEQ4 2:09866Field goal27–34
CINQ4 0:2000End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden26/3732220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson191095.71
Travis Benjamin2157.50
Brandon Weeden263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi57900
Chris Ogbonnaya66730
Greg Little57571
Trent Richardson45361
Alex Smith34300
Benjamin Watson11270
Josh Gordon1350
Josh Cribbs1240
Owen Marecic0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/3131831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis21753.60
Andy Dalton341.30
Cedric Peerman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Tate33711
Armon Binns55660
A.J. Green712581
Andrew Hawkins23561
Jermaine Gresham45370
BenJarvus Green-Ellis33300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.60