Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.002
- 39.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.6%
- -4.22CPOE+1.17
- 30.6%Third-down rate34.3%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.71
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 26/37 | 322 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 5 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/31 | 318 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tate | 3 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Armon Binns | 5 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 12 | 58 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.60