Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.115
- 43.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.02CPOE-5.09
- 38.1%Third-down rate28.8%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.89Points / drive0.96
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 26/35 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 28 | 110 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| James Casey | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 7/19 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2/2 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Robinson | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Zach Potter | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.39