2012 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

27·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.115
  • 43.9%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.02CPOE-5.09
  • 38.1%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.89Points / drive0.96
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:001266Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:25826Punt3–0
HOUQ1 5:5438Punt3–0
JAXQ1 4:3035Punt3–0
HOUQ1 2:52641Touchdown10–0
JAXQ1 0:1557Punt10–0
HOUQ2 13:4239Punt10–0
JAXQ2 11:5630Punt10–0
HOUQ2 10:23758Touchdown17–0
JAXQ2 6:4936Punt17–0
HOUQ2 5:42633Punt17–0
JAXQ2 2:524-3Punt17–0
HOUQ2 2:14627Punt17–0
JAXQ2 0:1912End of half17–0
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt17–0
HOUQ3 13:583-2Punt17–0
JAXQ3 12:35237Touchdown17–7
HOUQ3 11:441875Touchdown24–7
JAXQ3 2:303-1Punt24–7
HOUQ3 0:48312Punt24–7
JAXQ4 14:133-7Punt24–7
HOUQ4 13:351052Field goal27–7
JAXQ4 7:20440Turnover27–7
HOUQ4 5:09635End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub26/3519500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster281103.91
Ben Tate12746.22
Justin Forsett6355.80
Matt Schaub2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels69470
Arian Foster67370
Kevin Walter34340
Ben Tate44230
Andre Johnson34210
James Casey34180
Garrett Graham11150
Keshawn Martin0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert7/195310
Chad Henne2/22300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew12605.00
Blaine Gabbert155.00
Chad Henne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laurent Robinson36490
Mike Thomas13120
Maurice Jones-Drew3371
Zach Potter1240
Cecil Shorts0200
Justin Blackmon0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.39