Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
45
Model margin
+5.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.007
- 40.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -3.02CPOE-1.57
- 33.1%Third-down rate39.8%
- 38.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 0.91Points / drive1.58
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 23/42 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 8 | 15 | 102 | 2 |
| Jon Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 10/19 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 15 | 123 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Tashard Choice | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.42