2012 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

17·35

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 66°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

45

Model margin

+5.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBills
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.007
  • 40.7%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.021
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -3.02CPOE-1.57
  • 33.1%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 38.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 0.91Points / drive1.58
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BUF
KCQ1 15:00634Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:3539Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:5231Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:531294Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 2:0134Punt0–7
BUFQ1 0:24767Touchdown0–14
KCQ2 12:29516Punt0–14
BUFQ2 9:4230Punt0–14
KCQ2 8:16416Turnover0–14
BUFQ2 6:58643Touchdown0–21
KCQ2 3:291177Turnover0–21
BUFQ2 0:3800End of half0–21
BUFQ3 15:0037Punt0–21
KCQ3 14:0232Punt0–21
BUFQ3 13:06313Punt0–21
KCQ3 11:05623Field goal3–21
BUFQ3 7:32590Touchdown3–28
KCQ3 5:35422Opp touchdown3–35
KCQ3 3:46946Punt3–35
BUFQ4 14:01847Punt3–35
KCQ4 8:39580Touchdown10–35
BUFQ4 6:2639Punt10–35
KCQ4 4:01983Touchdown17–35
BUFQ4 1:1022Punt17–35
KCQ4 0:35418Turnover17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel23/4230121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis11666.00
Shaun Draughn55611.20
Matt Cassel22512.50
Jamaal Charles630.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe8151022
Jon Baldwin36620
Dexter McCluster45320
Kevin Boss11290
Peyton Hillis23250
Shaun Draughn12230
Jamaal Charles34190
Tony Moeaki1490
Steve Breaston0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick10/1917820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller151238.22
Tashard Choice8374.60
Ryan Fitzpatrick4348.50
Johnny White5112.20
Brad Smith252.50
Tyler Thigpen1-1-1.00
Dorin Dickerson1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson25561
Scott Chandler25531
C.J. Spiller33470
Brad Smith11160
Trevor Graham1170
Tashard Choice0100
Donald Jones13-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.42