2009 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

24·0

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Byron Leftwich

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYG -6

Total

46

Model margin

+4.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.156
  • 44.1%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.188
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +2.61CPOE-5.15
  • 42.5%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.06
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TB
NYGQ1 15:001280Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 8:05314Punt7–0
NYGQ1 5:5035Punt7–0
TBQ1 4:0810Turnover7–0
NYGQ1 3:58766Touchdown14–0
TBQ2 14:5430Punt14–0
NYGQ2 12:5231Punt14–0
TBQ2 11:4137Punt14–0
NYGQ2 9:3533Punt14–0
TBQ2 8:313-1Punt14–0
NYGQ2 6:511260Missed field goal14–0
TBQ2 0:1700End of half14–0
TBQ3 15:0036Punt14–0
NYGQ3 13:131164Field goal17–0
TBQ3 5:48510Punt17–0
NYGQ3 3:521377Touchdown24–0
TBQ4 12:2630Punt24–0
NYGQ4 11:5745Punt24–0
TBQ4 9:331251Turnover on downs24–0
NYGQ4 5:53938End of half24–0

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/2416120
David Carr2/31000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw141047.40
Brandon Jacobs26923.51
Gartrell Johnson6233.80
Eli Manning199.00
David Carr2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith77631
Mario Manningham47550
Kevin Boss24270
Sinorice Moss11181
Travis Beckum2280
Brandon Jacobs0200
Darcy Johnson0100
Gartrell Johnson0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson4/103600
Byron Leftwich7/162201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Johnson11515.00
Cadillac Williams284.00
Byron Leftwich231.50
Derrick Ward520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammie Stroughter23230
Kellen Winslow38140
Derrick Ward2270
Jerramy Stevens1360
Antonio Bryant1460
Cadillac Williams1130
Michael Clayton0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.13