2009 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
46
Model margin
+4.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.156
- 44.1%Success rate36.1%
- +0.178EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.188
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.61CPOE-5.15
- 42.5%Third-down rate33.0%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.02Points / drive1.06
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/24 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2/3 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 26 | 92 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Sinorice Moss | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darcy Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 4/10 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 7/16 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Stroughter | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13