Closing spread
GB -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.109
- 46.3%Success rate45.2%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.005
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- +5.43CPOE+5.50
- 42.8%Third-down rate39.8%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.11Points / drive2.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/39 | 223 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| James Jones | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10/21 | 130 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 3 | 7 | 68 | 2 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Charly Martin | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.92