2012 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

12·14

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.109
  • 46.3%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.005
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +5.43CPOE+5.50
  • 42.8%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.17
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:03413Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:36947Punt0–0
GBQ1 5:591025Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:3133Punt0–0
GBQ2 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ2 13:1435Punt0–0
GBQ2 11:38531Punt0–0
SEAQ2 9:24663Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 6:22815Punt0–7
SEAQ2 2:17521End of half0–7
GBQ3 15:001350Field goal3–7
SEAQ3 8:073-6Punt3–7
GBQ3 5:501161Field goal6–7
SEAQ3 1:1435Punt6–7
GBQ4 14:461773Touchdown12–7
SEAQ4 8:441546Turnover on downs12–7
GBQ4 1:543-3Punt12–7
SEAQ4 0:46646Touchdown12–14

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/3922300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson17452.61
Randall Cobb12020.00
Aaron Rodgers2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley45600
James Jones56550
Greg Jennings610350
Cedric Benson45190
Jordy Nelson23190
D.J. Williams12110
Donald Driver0100
Randall Cobb12-10

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson10/2113020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch25983.90
Russell Wilson3186.00
Leon Washington11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate37682
Sidney Rice11220
Zach Miller24120
Charly Martin11100
Anthony McCoy1290
Ben Obomanu1380
Marshawn Lynch1110
Evan Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

6.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.92