Closing spread
IND -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play+0.035
- 40.0%Success rate45.1%
- -0.106EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- -5.09CPOE-4.46
- 28.8%Third-down rate42.3%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 0.96Points / drive1.62
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 10/21 | 155 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 28 | 177 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 2 | 80 | 1 |
| Kevin Elliott | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 22/46 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 8 | 113 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 15 | 88 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Kris Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63