2012 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

22·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.115EPA / play+0.035
  • 40.0%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -5.09CPOE-4.46
  • 28.8%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.62
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
JAXQ1 15:001354Field goal3–0
INDQ1 7:13762Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 3:4237Punt3–7
INDQ1 2:0535Punt3–7
JAXQ2 15:00512Punt3–7
INDQ2 13:251036Punt3–7
JAXQ2 9:14637Punt3–7
INDQ2 5:301385Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 0:3718End of half3–14
INDQ3 15:00518Punt9–14
JAXQ3 12:16159Touchdown10–14
INDQ3 12:05619Punt10–14
JAXQ3 9:2033Punt10–14
INDQ3 8:20413Turnover10–14
JAXQ3 6:18616Field goal13–14
INDQ3 2:55419Punt13–14
JAXQ3 1:271453Field goal16–14
INDQ4 11:021164Missed field goal16–14
JAXQ4 4:4033Punt16–14
INDQ4 3:02632Punt16–14
JAXQ4 2:0131Punt16–14
INDQ4 1:33448Field goal16–17
JAXQ4 0:56180Touchdown22–17
INDQ4 0:45536End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert10/2115510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew281776.31
Blaine Gabbert2115.50
Cecil Shorts1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts12801
Kevin Elliott24240
Maurice Jones-Drew22160
Marcedes Lewis1180
Mike Thomas1380
Justin Blackmon1570
Laurent Robinson0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck22/4631321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown18623.40
Andrew Luck45012.50
Vick Ballard5122.40
Mewelde Moore200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton481131
Reggie Wayne815880
Donald Brown11390
Dwayne Allen56350
Donnie Avery29280
Austin Collie1160
Mewelde Moore1141
Kris Adams0100
Coby Fleener0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63