2012 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

28·30

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

48

Model margin

+3.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.9%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.192
  • 11.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.55CPOE+5.71
  • 42.2%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.31
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:003-11Punt0–0
CARQ1 14:14553Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 11:451767Turnover7–0
CARQ1 3:24412Punt7–0
ATLQ1 1:56377Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 0:26110Turnover7–7
ATLQ1 0:165-8Field goal7–10
CARQ2 13:11779Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 8:4437Punt14–10
CARQ2 7:1335Punt14–10
ATLQ2 5:29851Touchdown14–17
CARQ2 1:49834End of half14–17
CARQ3 15:00611Punt14–17
ATLQ3 11:54372Touchdown14–24
CARQ3 10:171282Touchdown21–24
ATLQ3 3:1668Punt21–24
CARQ3 0:29310Punt21–24
ATLQ4 14:13640Punt21–24
CARQ4 11:18688Touchdown28–24
ATLQ4 7:55852Field goal28–27
CARQ4 4:5732Punt28–27
ATLQ4 3:163-1Punt28–27
CARQ4 2:26523Punt28–27
ATLQ4 0:59572Field goal28–30
CARQ4 0:051-5End of half28–30

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2421520
Armanti Edwards0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton9869.61
DeAngelo Williams11494.51
Jonathan Stewart10404.00
Steve Smith11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen67891
Steve Smith36520
Kealoha Pilares11361
Armanti Edwards11120
Jonathan Stewart1180
Louis Murphy1180
DeAngelo Williams1220
Brandon LaFell0300

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/4036931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner131037.90
Jacquizz Rodgers6183.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8121692
Michael Turner35681
Tony Gonzalez55510
Jacquizz Rodgers44400
Julio Jones18300
Harry Douglas1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.12