Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
48
Model margin
+3.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.091
- 44.9%Success rate46.4%
- +0.158EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.192
- 11.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.55CPOE+5.71
- 42.2%Third-down rate44.9%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.90Points / drive2.31
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/24 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9 | 86 | 9.6 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Kealoha Pilares | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/40 | 369 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 12 | 169 | 2 |
| Michael Turner | 3 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.12