Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+6.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/38 | 338 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Prater | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 7 | 9 | 79 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.