Closing spread
HOU -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play+0.069
- 38.0%Success rate43.9%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.87CPOE-0.02
- 38.2%Third-down rate38.1%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.29Points / drive1.89
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/25 | 193 | 2 | 2 |
| Jake Locker | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 25 | 141 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/28 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 24 | 86 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| James Casey | 5 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50