2012 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

14·38

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -13

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.093EPA / play+0.069
  • 38.0%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.87CPOE-0.02
  • 38.2%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.89
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00777Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:41418Punt0–7
HOUQ1 9:5639Punt0–7
TENQ1 8:123-5Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:161047Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 0:17419Punt0–14
HOUQ2 13:5031Punt0–14
TENQ2 12:23888Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 7:52729Punt7–14
TENQ2 3:2431Punt7–14
HOUQ2 1:5539Punt7–14
TENQ2 0:2100End of half7–14
TENQ3 15:00632Punt7–14
HOUQ3 12:12410Punt7–20
TENQ3 9:3910Opp touchdown7–21
TENQ3 9:21626Punt7–21
HOUQ3 5:24775Touchdown7–28
TENQ3 2:47514Punt7–28
HOUQ3 0:361139Punt7–28
TENQ4 9:20616Turnover7–28
HOUQ4 7:1033Field goal7–31
TENQ4 5:38538Opp touchdown7–38
TENQ4 3:571079Touchdown14–38
HOUQ4 0:5700End of half14–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck17/2519322
Jake Locker0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson251415.60
Javon Ringer2147.00
Matt Hasselbeck231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright48461
Nate Washington35430
Jared Cook34360
Craig Stevens22241
Chris Johnson22160
Damian Williams1260
Lavelle Hawkins1150
Taylor Thompson0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub20/2820220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster24863.61
Ben Tate5112.20
Matt Schaub2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels66721
Andre Johnson36560
James Casey55361
Keshawn Martin23190
Kevin Walter1380
Arian Foster1280
Ben Tate2230
Garrett Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.50