2012 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

24·34

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

42

Model margin

-0.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.068
  • 41.6%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.066
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.17CPOE-4.22
  • 34.3%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.48
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:35959Turnover0–0
CINQ1 8:42363Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 7:07614Punt7–0
CINQ1 3:3337Punt7–0
CLEQ1 2:02692Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 14:51832Punt7–7
CLEQ2 9:39310Punt7–7
CINQ2 7:45419Punt7–7
CLEQ2 5:123-7Punt7–7
CINQ2 3:11327Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 1:5439Punt14–7
CINQ2 1:21660End of half14–7
CLEQ3 15:0030Punt14–7
CINQ3 14:4034Punt14–7
CLEQ3 13:0931Punt14–7
CINQ3 11:28420Punt14–7
CLEQ3 9:5337Field goal14–10
CINQ3 8:2533Turnover14–10
CLEQ3 7:3235Field goal14–13
CINQ3 6:2732Punt14–13
CLEQ3 5:131066Touchdown14–20
CINQ4 14:56844Field goal17–20
CLEQ4 11:11663Touchdown17–27
CINQ4 8:0010Opp touchdown17–34
CINQ4 7:50679Touchdown24–34
CLEQ4 5:2136Punt24–34
CINQ4 4:13725Turnover24–34
CLEQ4 2:2734Punt24–34
CINQ4 1:52546Turnover24–34
CLEQ4 0:0600End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton31/4638133

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis16623.90
Cedric Peerman177.00
Andy Dalton252.50
Andrew Hawkins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green7111352
Cedric Peerman88760
Jermaine Gresham37681
Andrew Hawkins55350
Marvin Jones22210
Armon Binns25120
Orson Charles12120
Brandon Tate12110
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1180
Brian Leonard1130

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden17/2923121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montario Hardesty15563.71
Trent Richardson14372.60
Josh Cribbs188.00
Chris Ogbonnaya166.00
Brandon Weeden331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon34991
Josh Cooper23390
Jordan Cameron23380
Greg Little35180
Trent Richardson23170
Montario Hardesty1190
Benjamin Watson2461
Chris Ogbonnaya2250
Josh Cribbs0200
Owen Marecic0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.70