Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
42
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.068
- 41.6%Success rate39.6%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.066
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.17CPOE-4.22
- 34.3%Third-down rate30.6%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.71Points / drive1.48
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 31/46 | 381 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 11 | 135 | 2 |
| Cedric Peerman | 8 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Armon Binns | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 17/29 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montario Hardesty | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| Josh Cooper | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.70