Closing spread
SD -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/30 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.