Closing spread
SD -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- ProbableChris GronkowskiRBThigh· Full
- ProbableChris HarrisCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableChris KuperGForearm· Full
- ProbableDemaryius ThomasWRHip· Full
- ProbableKeith BrookingLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableLance BallRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMatt WillisWRNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableRyan CladyTHamstring· Full
- ProbableTony CarterCBIllness· Full
Chargers
- DNPEddie RoyalWRHamstring
- DNPJared GaitherTGroin
- DNPNate KaedingKright Groin
- LimitedMalcom FloydWRGroin
- LimitedShareece WrightCBFoot
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:55 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 8:59 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:56 | 2 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q1 8:16 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 6:22 | 9 | 70 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 14:50 | 8 | 61 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:19 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 8:41 | 6 | 69 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q2 6:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 4:20 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| DEN | Q2 0:24 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–24 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 10:56 | 11 | 44 | Opp touchdown | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q3 4:41 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DEN | Q3 2:47 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 13:33 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| DEN | Q4 11:11 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| LAC | Q4 9:03 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 28–24 |
| DEN | Q4 6:48 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 28–24 |
| LAC | Q4 3:52 | 6 | 31 | Opp touchdown | 35–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:05 | 8 | 14 | Turnover | 35–24 |
| DEN | Q4 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/30 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.