2012 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
NO -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutDavid HawthorneLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJimmy GrahamTEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableJabari GreerCBGroin· Full
- ProbableJahri EvansGToe· Full
- ProbableJonathan CasillasLBNeck· Full
- ProbableLance MooreWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableScott ShanleLBIllness· Full
- ProbableTravaris CadetRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTurk McBrideDEAnkle· Full
Buccaneers
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRCalf· Limited
- ProbableCarl NicksGFoot· Full
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.018
- 47.2%Success rate41.0%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.038
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.89CPOE-4.01
- 43.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.17Points / drive1.74
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| TB | Q1 12:27 | 1 | 13 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 12:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 10:53 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q1 5:55 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q1 1:46 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| NO | Q2 13:18 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| TB | Q2 9:24 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–21 |
| NO | Q2 7:20 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| TB | Q2 4:35 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 21–21 |
| NO | Q2 1:53 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| TB | Q2 0:15 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 28–21 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 66 | Missed field goal | 28–21 |
| NO | Q3 8:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–21 |
| TB | Q3 7:09 | 6 | 91 | Turnover on downs | 28–21 |
| NO | Q3 3:24 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 35–21 |
| TB | Q4 13:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 35–21 |
| NO | Q4 11:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 35–21 |
| TB | Q4 10:28 | 17 | 76 | Touchdown | 35–28 |
| NO | Q4 4:10 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 35–28 |
| TB | Q4 1:50 | 9 | 70 | End of half | 35–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/37 | 377 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 9 | 10 | 121 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 3 | 75 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 7 | 10 | 73 | 1 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 24/42 | 420 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 7 | 14 | 216 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.29