Closing spread
NE -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play+0.176
- 41.7%Success rate50.2%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.054EPA / rush+0.031
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- -5.39CPOE+1.48
- 36.9%Third-down rate48.4%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.20Points / drive2.71
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 28/41 | 328 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Joe McKnight | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 7 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 7 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Stephen Hill | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 6 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/42 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 9 | 78 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.52