2012 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

6·13

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -7.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.105
  • 45.2%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.005EPA / rush+0.029
  • 11.2%Explosive rate12.9%
  • +5.50CPOE+5.02
  • 39.8%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.92
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:00838Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:341042Field goal3–0
SFQ1 5:291060Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 0:26763Field goal6–3
SFQ2 12:0739Punt6–3
SEAQ2 10:23634Missed field goal6–3
SFQ2 6:5638Punt6–3
SEAQ2 4:56739Punt6–3
SFQ2 1:2730Punt6–3
SEAQ2 0:2200End of half6–3
SEAQ3 15:00832Punt6–3
SFQ3 10:491081Touchdown6–10
SEAQ3 4:29413Turnover6–10
SFQ3 2:22966Turnover6–10
SEAQ4 11:5836Punt6–10
SFQ4 10:11749Field goal6–13
SEAQ4 5:2469Punt6–13
SFQ4 2:0535Punt6–13
SEAQ4 1:36414Turnover on downs6–13
SFQ4 0:4300End of half6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson9/2312201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch191035.40
Robert Turbin4174.30
Russell Wilson3103.30
Leon Washington242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Obomanu34500
Sidney Rice24320
Doug Baldwin22150
Marshawn Lynch12130
Braylon Edwards0200
Zach Miller0200
Evan Moore0100
Anthony McCoy0100
Golden Tate0300
Robert Turbin0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith14/2314011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore161318.20
Kendall Hunter9313.40
Alex Smith5112.20
Kyle Williams133.00
Colin Kaepernick1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore56510
Michael Crabtree46310
Kyle Williams14180
Randy Moss14140
Kendall Hunter22140
Delanie Walker11121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.16