Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.105
- 45.2%Success rate47.9%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.005EPA / rush+0.029
- 11.2%Explosive rate12.9%
- +5.50CPOE+5.02
- 39.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.17Points / drive1.92
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 9/23 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Obomanu | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/23 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 131 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.16