Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.000
- 39.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.023
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.91CPOE+0.64
- 35.9%Third-down rate30.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.51Points / drive1.56
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/25 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 23 | 153 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Javon Ringer | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Williams | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/46 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 14 | 83 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Smith | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Caussin | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.47