2012 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

19·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.093
  • 45.1%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.46CPOE-2.87
  • 42.3%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.29
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:001264Field goal0–3
INDQ1 7:351182Field goal3–3
TENQ1 1:06727Punt3–3
INDQ2 12:461342Punt3–3
TENQ2 7:281482Touchdown3–10
INDQ2 1:00747Missed field goal3–10
INDQ3 15:00949Field goal6–10
TENQ3 10:2032Punt6–10
INDQ3 8:46324Turnover6–10
TENQ3 7:21653Missed field goal6–10
INDQ3 3:22532Punt6–10
TENQ3 1:05972Field goal6–13
INDQ4 10:261485Touchdown13–13
TENQ4 3:24839Punt13–13
INDQ4 0:56422End of half13–13
INDOT975Touchdown19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck26/3829711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown14805.70
Vick Ballard12554.60
Andrew Luck6284.70
Delone Carter284.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne711910
Dwayne Allen45560
Donnie Avery47420
T.Y. Hilton56350
Coby Fleener23240
Vick Ballard11161
Mewelde Moore12130
Weslye Saunders11110
LaVon Brazill1190
Donald Brown0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/2923610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson21994.70
Matt Hasselbeck2105.00
Darius Reynaud144.00
Jamie Harper1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington56690
Kendall Wright45471
Jared Cook34450
Kenny Britt35340
Chris Johnson23180
Craig Stevens23150
Lavelle Hawkins1170
Damian Williams1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79