Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.093
- 45.1%Success rate38.0%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.46CPOE-2.87
- 42.3%Third-down rate38.2%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.62Points / drive1.29
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 26/38 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/29 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 99 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79