Closing spread
SF -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.259
- 47.9%Success rate35.1%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.267
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.242
- 12.9%Explosive rate6.0%
- +5.02CPOE-8.47
- 35.1%Third-down rate25.9%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 1.92Points / drive0.79
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/19 | 232 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 5 | 72 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 1 | 47 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 32/52 | 290 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 7 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.22
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.51