2012 · Week 8 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

24·3

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

37.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.259
  • 47.9%Success rate35.1%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.267
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.242
  • 12.9%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +5.02CPOE-8.47
  • 35.1%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 1.92Points / drive0.79
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:00726Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:19424Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:571187Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 1:533-2Punt7–0
SFQ1 0:4236Punt7–0
ARIQ2 13:25617Punt7–0
SFQ2 9:34625Field goal10–0
ARIQ2 5:5833Punt10–0
SFQ2 4:27868Touchdown17–0
ARIQ2 1:41727Turnover17–0
ARIQ3 15:00743Punt17–0
SFQ3 10:59680Touchdown24–0
ARIQ3 7:271480Field goal24–3
SFQ3 0:573-1Punt24–3
ARIQ4 14:183-15Punt24–3
SFQ4 12:5434Punt24–3
ARIQ4 10:51619Punt24–3
SFQ4 7:27616Punt24–3
ARIQ4 3:381569Turnover on downs24–3
SFQ4 0:4916End of half24–3

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith18/1923230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16553.40
Kendall Hunter10434.30
Michael Crabtree188.00
Alex Smith166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree55722
Randy Moss11471
Delanie Walker23380
Vernon Davis22340
Mario Manningham44200
Frank Gore11110
Kendall Hunter1160
Kyle Williams1140
Ted Ginn1100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton32/5229001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling860.80
John Skelton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts711650
Larry Fitzgerald511520
Jeff King33430
Michael Floyd511360
LaRod Stephens-Howling34320
Rob Housler45320
Early Doucet24210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.22
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.51