Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
54
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.094
- 46.4%Success rate47.2%
- +0.234EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +5.71CPOE+0.89
- 44.9%Third-down rate43.1%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 2.31Points / drive2.17
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/52 | 411 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 13 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 11 | 15 | 122 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 7 | 13 | 114 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/32 | 298 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 8 | 146 | 2 |
| Lance Moore | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.82