2012 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

54

Model margin

+0.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.094
  • 46.4%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback+0.160
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +5.71CPOE+0.89
  • 44.9%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.17
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00780Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 11:3810Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 11:2638Field goal10–0
NOQ1 9:19678Touchdown10–7
ATLQ1 6:49531Punt10–7
NOQ1 3:5611105Touchdown10–14
ATLQ2 13:331480Touchdown17–14
NOQ2 6:27516Punt17–14
ATLQ2 3:543-1Punt17–14
NOQ2 2:17869Touchdown17–21
ATLQ2 0:3428End of half17–21
NOQ3 15:0033Punt17–21
ATLQ3 13:1230Turnover17–21
NOQ3 12:54781Touchdown17–28
ATLQ3 9:2338Punt17–28
NOQ3 7:50612Punt17–28
ATLQ3 4:131291Touchdown24–28
NOQ4 13:2738Punt24–28
ATLQ4 11:50562Field goal27–28
NOQ4 9:08867Field goal27–31
ATLQ4 5:541278Turnover on downs27–31
NOQ4 1:4232Punt27–31
ATLQ4 0:3749Turnover on downs27–31
NOQ4 0:1200End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/5241131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers3299.70
Michael Turner13151.20
Matt Ryan221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez11151222
Roddy White7131140
Julio Jones45750
Harry Douglas47490
Jacquizz Rodgers44330
Michael Palmer1150
Michael Turner0100
Drew Davis0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees21/3229831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory77210.31
Mark Ingram16674.20
Pierre Thomas5102.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham781462
Lance Moore79910
Marques Colston36261
Travaris Cadet23160
Chris Ivory11130
Pierre Thomas1260
Devery Henderson0200
Mark Ingram0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.82