Closing spread
IND -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.115
- 45.1%Success rate40.0%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.46CPOE-5.09
- 42.3%Third-down rate28.8%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.62Points / drive0.96
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/26 | 227 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Delone Carter | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 11 | 96 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 18/31 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 10/16 | 121 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 13 | 105 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 9 | 15 | 77 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35