2012 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

27·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.115
  • 45.1%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.46CPOE-5.09
  • 42.3%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.62Points / drive0.96
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 14:07523Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:5530Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:58644Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 7:27954Missed field goal3–0
INDQ1 3:14951Touchdown10–0
JAXQ2 13:44636Turnover10–0
INDQ2 11:22761Touchdown17–0
JAXQ2 7:3936Punt17–0
INDQ2 6:12938Turnover17–0
JAXQ2 1:481042Field goal17–3
INDQ2 0:1700End of half17–3
INDQ3 15:00639Punt17–3
JAXQ3 11:3524Opp touchdown24–3
JAXQ3 10:50643Punt24–3
INDQ3 8:02411Punt24–3
JAXQ3 7:0638Punt24–3
INDQ3 5:02954Turnover24–3
JAXQ4 14:521661Touchdown24–10
INDQ4 9:16842Field goal27–10
JAXQ4 3:23975Turnover27–10
INDQ4 1:4500End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck18/2622701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard12484.00
Donald Brown14423.00
T.Y. Hilton23015.00
Andrew Luck7111.62
Delone Carter273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne811960
Donnie Avery46650
Dwayne Allen22310
LaVon Brazill12210
Vick Ballard22110
Robert Hughes1130
Donald Brown0100
T.Y. Hilton0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert18/3120901
Chad Henne10/1612111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings11272.50
Blaine Gabbert11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts6131051
Laurent Robinson915770
Micheal Spurlock66610
Marcedes Lewis34360
Jalen Parmele12260
Justin Blackmon35250
Rashad Jennings0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.35