Closing spread
SF -13.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 11/17 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 7/8 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.22
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.