Closing spread
SF -13.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulDarian StewartSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulEugene SimsDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDanny AmendolaWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKellen HeardDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMario HagganLBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableRodger SaffoldTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableWayne HunterTBack· Limited
- ProbableBarry RichardsonTHead· Full
- ProbableJustin ColeLBIllness· Full
- ProbableKendall LangfordDTNot Injury Related· Full
49ers
- ProbableAlex SmithQBright Finger· Full
- ProbableAndy LeePHand· Full
- ProbableDaniel KilgoreGConcussion· Full
- ProbableFrank GoreRBHand· Full
- ProbableMario ManninghamWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableMichael CrabtreeWRIllness· Full
- ProbablePatrick WillisLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTavares GoodenLBElbow· Full
- ProbableWill TukuafuDTWrist· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:01 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:38 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:56 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| SF | Q1 1:47 | 13 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SF | Q2 6:31 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 2:42 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SF | Q2 2:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:45 | 7 | 23 | End of half | 14–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SF | Q3 10:49 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q3 8:43 | 16 | 59 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| SF | Q3 0:18 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q4 8:40 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| SF | Q4 8:29 | 1 | 20 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LA | Q4 8:23 | 15 | 91 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| SF | Q4 1:09 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–24 |
| LA | OT | 4 | 14 | Punt | 24–24 |
| SF | OT | 7 | 37 | Missed field goal | 24–24 |
| LA | OT | 9 | 39 | Missed field goal | 24–24 |
| SF | OT | 3 | -5 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | OT | 7 | 35 | End of half | 24–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 11/17 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 7/8 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.22
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.