Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.007
- 41.5%Success rate42.0%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.168
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.27CPOE+0.59
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.80Points / drive1.66
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/32 | 164 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 40 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 18/39 | 199 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 1 |
| David Gilreath | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Gilreath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.23
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.40