2012 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

13·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Byron Leftwich

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.007
  • 41.5%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.168
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.27CPOE+0.59
  • 37.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.66
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:00338Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 14:1738Punt0–7
PITQ1 12:39421Turnover0–7
BALQ1 10:3134Field goal3–7
PITQ1 8:22418Punt3–7
BALQ1 6:59615Punt3–7
PITQ1 5:0935Opp touchdown10–7
PITQ1 3:1639Punt10–7
BALQ1 1:27853Missed field goal10–7
PITQ2 14:03624Punt10–7
BALQ2 11:07825Punt10–7
PITQ2 6:0539Punt10–7
BALQ2 4:39832Punt10–7
PITQ2 1:23618Punt10–7
BALQ2 0:1200End of half10–7
BALQ3 15:0039Punt10–7
PITQ3 12:58647Turnover10–7
BALQ3 9:27741Field goal13–7
PITQ3 6:491169Field goal13–10
BALQ3 0:343-6Punt13–10
PITQ4 14:21814Punt13–10
BALQ4 10:1338Punt13–10
PITQ4 8:36925Punt13–10
BALQ4 4:13712Punt13–10
PITQ4 1:05612Turnover13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3216400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice20402.00
Bernard Pierce284.00
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin812790
Ray Rice55530
Bernard Pierce11110
Ed Dickson2280
Torrey Smith1770
Dennis Pitta1150
Jacoby Jones2410

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich18/3919901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer12554.60
Rashard Mendenhall11333.00
Byron Leftwich13131.01
David Gilreath177.00
Isaac Redman155.00
Baron Batch133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders38820
Jonathan Dwyer33260
Mike Wallace47240
Jerricho Cotchery25220
Heath Miller25220
Rashard Mendenhall34170
David Paulson1260
David Gilreath0100
Will Johnson0300
Chris Rainey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.23
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.40