2012 · Week 11

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jason Campbell

7·32

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

34

Model margin

+2.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge map49ers
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.105
  • 39.6%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.104EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.0%Explosive rate12.9%
  • -0.76CPOE+5.02
  • 36.4%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.92
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SF
SFQ1 15:00853Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 10:323-2Punt0–3
SFQ1 8:30463Touchdown0–10
CHIQ1 6:14824Punt0–10
SFQ1 1:40991Touchdown0–17
CHIQ2 12:403-2Turnover0–17
SFQ2 11:19725Field goal0–20
CHIQ2 6:323-1Punt0–20
SFQ2 4:2339Punt0–20
CHIQ2 2:343-4Punt0–20
SFQ2 1:3938Punt0–20
CHIQ2 0:42320End of half0–20
CHIQ3 15:003-4Punt0–20
SFQ3 13:13562Touchdown0–27
CHIQ3 11:051574Touchdown7–27
SFQ3 3:4339Punt7–27
CHIQ3 1:3437Turnover7–27
SFQ3 0:11623Field goal7–30
CHIQ4 11:464-16Safety7–32
SFQ4 9:3235Punt7–32
CHIQ4 7:441147Turnover on downs7–32
SFQ4 2:1836End of half7–32

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell14/2210712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte21633.00
Jason Campbell11313.00
Michael Bush591.80
Armando Allen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester34230
Brandon Marshall24211
Kellen Davis22200
Michael Bush11180
Alshon Jeffery24150
Earl Bennett1260
Matt Forte3440
Evan Rodriguez0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2324320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17784.60
Kendall Hunter5275.41
Colin Kaepernick4102.50
Anthony Dixon362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis68831
Kyle Williams22600
Mario Manningham22450
Michael Crabtree34311
Randy Moss12120
Delanie Walker1390
Kendall Hunter1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.91