Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
34
Model margin
+2.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.105
- 39.6%Success rate47.9%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.104EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.0%Explosive rate12.9%
- -0.76CPOE+5.02
- 36.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.47Points / drive1.92
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 14/22 | 107 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/23 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91