Closing spread
GB -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.004
- 46.3%Success rate45.2%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.131
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.43CPOE-2.29
- 42.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.11Points / drive1.65
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/27 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 25 | 74 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 9 | 12 | 74 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/39 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 11 | 143 | 1 |
| Ryan Broyles | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 10 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.48