2012 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.004
  • 46.3%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.131
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +5.43CPOE-2.29
  • 42.8%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.65
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:11515Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:1832Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:24937Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 7:32752Field goal0–3
GBQ1 4:241181Touchdown7–3
DETQ2 13:561074Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 8:06613Punt7–10
DETQ2 4:48723Turnover7–10
GBQ2 2:1528Turnover7–10
DETQ2 1:5159Turnover7–10
GBQ2 0:59310Missed field goal7–10
GBQ3 15:0056Punt7–10
DETQ3 11:35728Opp touchdown14–10
DETQ3 8:311278Touchdown14–17
GBQ3 3:01749Punt14–17
DETQ4 13:2830Punt14–17
GBQ4 11:33714Missed field goal14–17
DETQ4 8:37863Field goal14–20
GBQ4 4:25682Touchdown21–20
DETQ4 1:5540Turnover on downs21–20
GBQ4 1:193-1Field goal24–20
DETQ4 0:19330Turnover24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2723621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks25743.00
Randall Cobb2199.50
Aaron Rodgers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb912741
Jermichael Finley33661
Jordy Nelson35450
James Jones24330
Donald Driver11120
James Starks1160
Alex Green0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford17/3926612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure19844.41
Matthew Stafford2126.00
Mike Thomas166.00
Kevin Smith144.00
Joique Bell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson5111431
Ryan Broyles22350
Titus Young16240
Tony Scheffler210220
Brandon Pettigrew47220
Will Heller11170
Joique Bell1150
Mikel Leshoure11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.48