2012 · Week 11 · Division

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

37·43

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -15

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.115EPA / play+0.069
  • 40.0%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -5.09CPOE-0.02
  • 28.8%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00584Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 12:15529Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 9:4835Punt0–7
JAXQ1 8:4736Punt0–7
HOUQ1 7:1343Punt0–7
JAXQ1 4:28481Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 2:56647Punt7–7
JAXQ2 14:47481Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 12:31848Touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 7:52744Field goal17–14
HOUQ2 2:53756Field goal17–17
JAXQ2 1:123-3Punt17–17
HOUQ2 0:24418Missed field goal17–17
JAXQ3 15:00758Field goal20–17
HOUQ3 11:013-9Turnover20–17
JAXQ3 9:31511Touchdown27–17
HOUQ3 6:52865Field goal27–20
JAXQ3 2:15519Punt27–20
HOUQ4 14:3624Turnover27–20
JAXQ4 13:56375Touchdown34–20
HOUQ4 12:331468Touchdown34–27
JAXQ4 5:3936Punt34–27
HOUQ4 3:52890Touchdown34–34
JAXQ4 1:3438Punt34–34
HOUQ4 1:07341Missed field goal34–34
HOUOT1461Field goal34–37
JAXOT1043Field goal37–37
HOUOT319Turnover37–37
JAXOT40Turnover on downs37–37
HOUOT253Touchdown37–43

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne16/3335440
Blaine Gabbert2/22400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Parmele24803.30
Chad Henne273.50
Rashad Jennings3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Blackmon7132361
Cecil Shorts36811
Marcedes Lewis34402
Micheal Spurlock25180
Jalen Parmele3330
Laurent Robinson0200
Rashad Jennings0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub43/5552752

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster28903.20
Justin Forsett7598.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson14192731
Garrett Graham89822
Owen Daniels69570
Kevin Walter68540
James Casey33201
Arian Foster33150
Lestar Jean11110
Keshawn Martin1191
Justin Forsett1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +157.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.11
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.12