Closing spread
HOU -15
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play+0.069
- 40.0%Success rate43.9%
- -0.106EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -5.09CPOE-0.02
- 28.8%Third-down rate38.1%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 0.96Points / drive1.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 16/33 | 354 | 4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2/2 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Parmele | 24 | 80 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 7 | 13 | 236 | 1 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 40 | 2 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 43/55 | 527 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 28 | 90 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 14 | 19 | 273 | 1 |
| Garrett Graham | 8 | 9 | 82 | 2 |
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| James Casey | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.12