2012 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

14·19

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.049EPA / play-0.007
  • 42.9%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.021
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -2.89CPOE-1.57
  • 37.7%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.58
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
MIAQ1 15:0037Opp touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 13:3033Punt0–7
BUFQ1 11:2039Punt0–7
MIAQ1 9:06117Turnover0–7
BUFQ1 8:59743Field goal6–10
MIAQ1 5:0700Touchdown7–10
BUFQ1 4:55760Field goal7–13
MIAQ1 0:40513Punt7–13
BUFQ2 12:54923Field goal7–16
MIAQ2 8:57515Punt7–16
BUFQ2 6:08620Punt7–16
MIAQ2 3:003-5Punt7–16
BUFQ2 1:58849Field goal7–19
BUFQ3 15:00943Punt7–19
MIAQ3 8:5653Punt7–19
BUFQ3 6:463-2Punt7–19
MIAQ3 5:011022Missed field goal7–19
BUFQ3 1:43410Punt7–19
MIAQ4 14:041241Touchdown14–19
BUFQ4 8:42719Punt14–19
MIAQ4 4:42731Turnover14–19
BUFQ4 1:5438Punt14–19
MIAQ4 1:24437Turnover14–19
BUFQ4 0:4100End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill14/2814112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas12332.80
Reggie Bush10202.00
Ryan Tannehill177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess611501
Brian Hartline47490
Rishard Matthews12190
Reggie Bush23150
Anthony Fasano1280
Marlon Moore0100
Charles Clay0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/2716800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller22914.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick3155.00
Tashard Choice6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson69790
C.J. Spiller34390
Scott Chandler24300
Donald Jones25110
Trevor Graham2250
Dorin Dickerson1140
Tashard Choice1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14