Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play-0.007
- 42.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -2.89CPOE-1.57
- 37.7%Third-down rate39.8%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.37Points / drive1.58
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 14/28 | 141 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 6 | 11 | 50 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/27 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14