2012 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

23·30

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–DEN
LACQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:01427Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:3831Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:55312Opp touchdown7–0
DENQ1 6:52743Missed field goal7–0
LACQ1 4:2338Punt7–0
DENQ1 2:5436Punt7–0
LACQ1 1:5636Punt7–0
DENQ1 0:20651Touchdown7–7
LACQ2 13:0010Turnover7–7
DENQ2 12:4737Field goal7–10
LACQ2 11:3330Punt7–10
DENQ2 10:16628Turnover7–10
LACQ2 7:53314Punt7–10
DENQ2 6:1739Punt7–10
LACQ2 4:5261Punt7–16
DENQ2 1:51131Touchdown7–17
LACQ2 1:4439Punt7–17
DENQ2 0:51332End of half7–17
DENQ3 15:0000Punt7–17
LACQ3 14:502-2Punt7–17
LACQ3 14:101-6Punt7–17
DENQ3 13:232-2Safety9–17
LACQ3 12:4800Punt9–17
LACQ3 12:3610Punt9–17
LACQ3 12:3625Punt9–17
DENQ3 11:3816Punt9–17
DENQ3 11:1310Punt9–17
DENQ3 11:1013Punt9–17
LACQ3 10:14513Turnover9–17
DENQ3 7:41320Touchdown9–24
LACQ3 7:231280Touchdown16–24
DENQ3 0:58962Field goal16–27
LACQ4 10:43539Turnover16–27
DENQ4 9:101052Field goal16–30
LACQ4 4:14995Touchdown23–30
DENQ4 1:243-1Punt23–30
LACQ4 0:232-1End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning25/4227031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee7557.90
Ronnie Hillman12433.60
Lance Ball6355.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley45551
Jacob Tamme45530
Demaryius Thomas39421
Joel Dreessen46280
Eric Decker25231
Lance Ball33210
Willis McGahee12180
Ronnie Hillman22160
Matt Willis24140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.98

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.