2012 · Week 11 · Division
Final / OT
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
46
Model margin
+5.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.081
- 41.0%Success rate44.9%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.8%Explosive rate11.0%
- -4.01CPOE-1.55
- 35.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.74Points / drive1.90
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 25/46 | 248 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 24 | 138 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 6 | 11 | 94 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/29 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.42