2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

17·9

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brady Quinn

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -10

Total

41.5

Model margin

-7.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.113EPA / play-0.132
  • 48.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.271EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +7.00CPOE-3.02
  • 46.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
  • 2.26Points / drive0.91
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
KCQ1 15:001055Field goal0–3
DENQ1 9:203-2Punt0–3
KCQ1 7:56633Field goal0–6
DENQ1 4:31734Missed field goal0–6
KCQ1 1:1839Punt0–6
DENQ2 14:18525Turnover0–6
KCQ2 11:441148Punt0–6
DENQ2 5:151194Touchdown7–6
KCQ2 0:1800End of half7–6
DENQ3 15:00643Missed field goal7–6
KCQ3 11:57746Field goal7–9
DENQ3 7:35775Touchdown14–9
KCQ3 4:41730Punt14–9
DENQ3 1:11829Punt14–9
KCQ4 13:19517Punt14–9
DENQ4 11:0732Punt14–9
KCQ4 10:18518Punt14–9
DENQ4 8:0030Punt14–9
KCQ4 7:3939Punt14–9
DENQ4 6:241168Field goal17–9
KCQ4 0:1430Turnover17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3728521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno20854.30
Ronnie Hillman393.00
Peyton Manning111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas48821
Eric Decker48640
Brandon Stokley47620
Jacob Tamme47481
Knowshon Moreno44260
Joel Dreessen2330

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn13/2512601
Peyton Hillis0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles231074.70
Dexter McCluster22311.50
Shaun Draughn2136.50
Peyton Hillis252.50
Terrance Copper111.00
Brady Quinn1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe412410
Tony Moeaki22400
Dexter McCluster44210
Terrance Copper23140
Jamar Newsome13100
Brady Quinn0100
Jon Baldwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.6%3.3%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

30.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-7.03