Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
-7.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.113EPA / play-0.132
- 48.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.271EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- +7.00CPOE-3.02
- 46.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
- 2.26Points / drive0.91
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/37 | 285 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 13/25 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 12 | 41 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
30.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.03