2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

49·19

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

48

Model margin

-1.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.176EPA / play-0.101
  • 50.2%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.282EPA / dropback-0.139
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.48CPOE-5.39
  • 48.4%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.20
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NEQ1 15:00313Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:2835Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:05643Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ1 10:05837Turnover0–0
NEQ1 5:551564Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 14:54937Turnover13–0
NEQ2 9:56183Touchdown14–0
NYJQ2 9:43212Opp touchdown27–0
NYJQ2 9:0000Touchdown28–0
NYJQ2 8:51616Punt28–0
NEQ2 5:01473Touchdown35–0
NYJQ2 3:081263Field goal35–3
NEQ2 0:0200End of half35–3
NYJQ3 15:0039Punt35–3
NEQ3 12:42733Turnover35–3
NYJQ3 10:34947Turnover on downs35–5
NEQ3 6:5210Safety35–5
NYJQ3 6:47568Touchdown35–12
NEQ3 4:411897Touchdown42–12
NYJQ4 12:02117Turnover42–12
NEQ4 11:45237Touchdown49–12
NYJQ4 11:0749Punt49–12
NEQ4 9:36832Punt49–12
NYJQ4 4:01679Touchdown49–19
NEQ4 2:2113Punt49–19
NYJQ4 0:3316End of half49–19

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/2732330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley21974.61
Shane Vereen10424.20
Danny Woodhead284.00
Tom Brady351.71
Julian Edelman133.00
Ryan Mallett2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shane Vereen22911
Wes Welker710711
Julian Edelman23641
Aaron Hernandez23360
Brandon Lloyd35260
Daniel Fells12240
Danny Woodhead11110

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez26/3630111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene14715.10
Bilal Powell12403.31
Joe McKnight166.00
Mark Sanchez221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley710860
Dustin Keller57641
Jeff Cumberland44580
Chaz Schilens23280
Clyde Gates24200
Stephen Hill22160
Bilal Powell23130
Shonn Greene1190
Konrad Reuland1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.55