Closing spread
NE -7
Total
48
Model margin
-1.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.101
- 50.2%Success rate41.7%
- +0.282EPA / dropback-0.139
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.48CPOE-5.39
- 48.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 2.71Points / drive1.20
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/27 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 2 | 91 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 26/36 | 301 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 7 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 5 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.55