Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
33
Model margin
+3.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.068
- 42.0%Success rate39.6%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.59CPOE-4.22
- 41.9%Third-down rate30.6%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.66Points / drive1.48
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 20/34 | 199 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Gilreath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 17/26 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 29 | 85 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96