2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Charlie Batch

14·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

33

Model margin

+3.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.068
  • 42.0%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.59CPOE-4.22
  • 41.9%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.48
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00429Opp touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 13:493-6Punt7–0
PITQ1 12:2625Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 11:38633Field goal7–3
PITQ1 8:25520Punt7–3
CLEQ1 4:52532Punt7–3
PITQ1 3:02311Punt7–3
CLEQ1 2:1537Punt7–3
PITQ1 0:1644Turnover7–3
CLEQ2 13:41310Touchdown7–10
PITQ2 12:20615Punt7–10
CLEQ2 9:00944Field goal7–13
PITQ2 3:2618Turnover7–13
CLEQ2 3:123-7Punt7–13
PITQ2 1:511059Touchdown14–13
CLEQ2 0:0100End of half14–13
PITQ3 15:00510Punt14–13
CLEQ3 11:25617Punt14–13
PITQ3 8:0334Turnover14–13
CLEQ3 7:05336Touchdown14–20
PITQ3 5:19720Punt14–20
CLEQ3 1:5558Punt14–20
PITQ4 14:15413Turnover14–20
CLEQ4 12:0068Punt14–20
PITQ4 9:1936Punt14–20
CLEQ4 7:51517Punt14–20
PITQ4 5:13632Turnover14–20
CLEQ4 3:0033Punt14–20
PITQ4 2:36111Turnover14–20
CLEQ4 2:2537Punt14–20
PITQ4 0:19324Turnover14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch20/3419903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer9192.10
Chris Rainey5173.41
Isaac Redman273.50
Rashard Mendenhall461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders56750
Heath Miller68630
Isaac Redman11150
Chris Rainey44150
Will Johnson13130
Mike Wallace1790
Jonathan Dwyer2290
Plaxico Burress0200
David Gilreath0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden17/2615811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson29852.91
Montario Hardesty2147.00
Brandon Weeden284.00
Travis Benjamin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon47600
Mohamed Massaquoi34270
Trent Richardson44270
Benjamin Watson33260
Jordan Cameron22121
Greg Little1460
Alex Smith0100
Travis Benjamin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96