2012 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

24·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

HOU -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.093
  • 43.9%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.02CPOE-2.87
  • 38.1%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.29
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:00680Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 12:29659Field goal7–3
HOUQ1 9:30830Punt7–3
TENQ1 5:3932Punt7–3
HOUQ1 4:28519Punt7–3
TENQ1 2:3430Punt7–3
HOUQ1 2:07520Touchdown14–3
TENQ1 0:1969Punt14–3
HOUQ2 13:3536Punt14–3
TENQ2 11:57433Turnover14–3
HOUQ2 10:46413Punt14–3
TENQ2 8:4210Turnover14–3
HOUQ2 8:3523Touchdown21–3
TENQ2 7:481239Punt21–3
HOUQ2 2:17650Punt21–3
TENQ2 0:2842Turnover21–3
TENQ3 15:0031Punt21–3
HOUQ3 12:55831Punt21–3
TENQ3 9:20315Turnover21–3
HOUQ3 9:0134Field goal24–3
TENQ3 6:543-7Punt24–3
HOUQ3 4:56411Punt24–3
TENQ3 3:19590Touchdown24–10
HOUQ3 1:34520Punt24–10
TENQ4 13:34959Turnover24–10
HOUQ4 10:33518Punt24–10
TENQ4 7:261142Turnover on downs24–10
HOUQ4 4:28629Punt24–10
TENQ4 2:25210Turnover24–10
HOUQ4 1:5700End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub21/3520720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett14634.50
Arian Foster14382.71
Ben Tate3186.00
Matt Schaub451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson57560
Lestar Jean11541
Owen Daniels310430
Kevin Walter45330
Arian Foster55150
Garrett Graham1170
James Casey1351
Keshawn Martin0200
Matt Schaub11-60

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker21/4530913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson13513.90
Jake Locker4389.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington36960
Kendall Wright610780
Jared Cook412510
Kenny Britt28401
Damian Williams23240
Chris Johnson45200
Taylor Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.24