Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.093
- 43.9%Success rate38.0%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.02CPOE-2.87
- 38.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.89Points / drive1.29
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 21/35 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 21/45 | 309 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 12 | 51 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.24