2012 · Week 13

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

18·34

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 52°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

41

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBills
  • -0.115EPA / play-0.007
  • 40.0%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.021
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -5.09CPOE-1.57
  • 28.8%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.58
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BUF
JAXQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:551076Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 9:10514Punt0–7
BUFQ1 7:0133Punt0–7
JAXQ1 5:161139Punt0–7
BUFQ1 0:43411Turnover0–7
JAXQ2 13:40626Field goal3–7
BUFQ2 11:471043Turnover on downs3–7
JAXQ2 5:33539Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 3:47426Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 1:561-6Turnover10–14
BUFQ2 1:5133Field goal10–17
JAXQ2 0:3100End of half10–17
BUFQ3 15:00957Touchdown10–24
JAXQ3 11:061024Turnover on downs10–24
BUFQ3 7:06729Field goal10–27
JAXQ3 2:1438Punt10–27
BUFQ3 0:36462Touchdown10–34
JAXQ4 13:29721Punt16–34
JAXQ4 10:5115Touchdown18–34
BUFQ4 10:4738Punt18–34
JAXQ4 8:33930Turnover on downs18–34
BUFQ4 5:41419Punt18–34
JAXQ4 3:08832Turnover on downs18–34
BUFQ4 1:5038Punt18–34
JAXQ4 0:3810Turnover18–34
BUFQ4 0:1900End of half18–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne19/4220211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montell Owens7294.10
Rashad Jennings8202.50
Chad Henne310.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts712771
Marcedes Lewis47680
Kevin Elliott26240
Jordan Shipley38190
Montell Owens11110
Justin Blackmon1690
Chad Henne11-60

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick9/1711221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson251094.40
C.J. Spiller14775.51
Brad Smith22814.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick5183.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trevor Graham22540
Steve Johnson25181
Brad Smith12120
Scott Chandler14111
Fred Jackson23100
C.J. Spiller1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.00