Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play-0.007
- 40.0%Success rate42.3%
- -0.106EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.0%
- -5.09CPOE-1.57
- 28.8%Third-down rate39.8%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 0.96Points / drive1.58
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 19/42 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montell Owens | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 7 | 12 | 77 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9/17 | 112 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 14 | 77 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00