Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47
Model margin
+5.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.102
- 42.1%Success rate46.3%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.66CPOE+5.43
- 37.4%Third-down rate42.8%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 12/25 | 119 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 210 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 286 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Alex Green | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Tom Crabtree | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.07