2012 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

14·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

47

Model margin

+5.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.102
  • 42.1%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.66CPOE+5.43
  • 37.4%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00970Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 11:2635Punt0–7
GBQ1 10:031357Field goal0–10
MINQ1 4:071471Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 12:1839Punt7–10
MINQ2 10:4536Punt7–10
GBQ2 9:08616Punt7–10
MINQ2 6:35391Touchdown14–10
GBQ2 5:08414Punt14–10
MINQ2 2:5835Punt14–10
GBQ2 1:42756Missed field goal14–10
MINQ3 15:00352Turnover14–10
GBQ3 13:511261Field goal14–13
MINQ3 7:473-1Punt14–13
GBQ3 6:5524Turnover14–13
MINQ3 6:0339Punt14–13
GBQ3 4:05451Touchdown14–20
MINQ3 2:12735Turnover14–20
GBQ4 15:001888Field goal14–23
MINQ4 4:0000Missed field goal14–23
MINQ4 3:56959Missed field goal14–23
GBQ4 1:5639Punt14–23
MINQ4 0:43427End of half14–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder12/2511912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson2121010.01
Christian Ponder6284.70
Toby Gerhart122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph68511
Jerome Simpson27250
Jarius Wright11130
Adrian Peterson12100
Toby Gerhart1170
Michael Jenkins0300
Devin Aromashodu0100
Stephen Burton0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3528611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks15664.41
Alex Green12584.80
Aaron Rodgers4153.80
Randall Cobb155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb66620
Jermichael Finley67600
Greg Jennings48460
James Jones22401
Tom Crabtree22200
James Starks22160
Alex Green11120
Jordy Nelson11100
Jarrett Boykin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.07