Closing spread
NE -7
Total
51
Model margin
-2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.049
- 50.2%Success rate42.9%
- +0.282EPA / dropback-0.007
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.107
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.48CPOE-2.89
- 48.4%Third-down rate37.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 2.71Points / drive1.37
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/40 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 12 | 18 | 103 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 8 | 13 | 97 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/29 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.99