2012 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

23·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

51

Model margin

-2.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.176EPA / play-0.049
  • 50.2%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.282EPA / dropback-0.007
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.107
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.48CPOE-2.89
  • 48.4%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.37
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0046Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 13:57622Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 11:5336Punt7–0
NEQ1 10:281153Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ1 6:45516Punt7–0
NEQ1 4:30322Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 3:03618Field goal7–3
NEQ1 0:011461Touchdown14–3
MIAQ2 9:2135Turnover14–3
NEQ2 7:5430Field goal17–3
MIAQ2 6:531490Touchdown17–10
NEQ2 0:2500End of half17–10
NEQ3 15:0039Punt17–10
MIAQ3 13:2731Punt17–10
NEQ3 12:345-1Punt17–10
MIAQ3 10:30631Punt17–10
NEQ3 6:55716Punt17–10
MIAQ3 3:533-3Punt17–10
NEQ3 2:521264Field goal20–10
MIAQ4 13:161251Field goal20–13
NEQ4 8:281577Field goal23–13
MIAQ4 1:10356Field goal23–16
NEQ4 0:3100End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/4023811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley19713.71
Danny Woodhead6244.00
Shane Vereen3144.70
Tom Brady4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker12181031
Aaron Hernandez813970
Danny Woodhead23150
Julian Edelman13130
Brandon Lloyd11100
Daniel Fells0100
Shane Vereen0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/2918600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush15644.30
Ryan Tannehill5193.81
Daniel Thomas5102.00
Marcus Thigpen188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline510840
Rishard Matthews12280
Charles Clay23260
Daniel Thomas22190
Anthony Fasano13140
Davone Bess16130
Reggie Bush0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.99