2012 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

13·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.094EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.160EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.192
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.89CPOE+5.71
  • 43.1%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00680Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 11:09543Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 8:4333Punt0–7
NOQ1 7:47619Punt0–7
ATLQ1 4:55524Punt0–7
NOQ1 3:0938Punt0–7
ATLQ1 1:36549Touchdown0–14
NOQ2 14:08412Punt0–14
ATLQ2 11:4139Punt0–14
NOQ2 9:5210Turnover0–14
ATLQ2 9:4432Field goal0–17
NOQ2 8:531275Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 3:1739Punt7–17
NOQ2 2:13778End of half7–17
NOQ3 15:001488Field goal10–17
ATLQ3 8:24413Punt10–17
NOQ3 6:42736Field goal13–17
ATLQ3 3:5330Punt13–17
NOQ3 3:2025Turnover13–17
ATLQ3 2:38635Field goal13–20
NOQ4 14:48743Punt13–20
ATLQ4 10:031043Field goal13–23
NOQ4 4:25514Turnover13–23
ATLQ4 3:2926Turnover13–23
NOQ4 2:33415Turnover13–23
ATLQ4 1:52212End of half13–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/5034105

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas14846.00
Mark Ingram6132.21
Chris Ivory341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Moore7111230
Marques Colston611710
Jimmy Graham46590
Darren Sproles59470
Joseph Morgan12380
Pierre Thomas1150
Devery Henderson0300
Chris Ivory0100
Mark Ingram11-10
Mike Higgins11-30

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/3316510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner12836.91
Jacquizz Rodgers8435.40
Matt Ryan3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez45581
Julio Jones59480
Roddy White17200
Michael Turner1170
Harry Douglas0200
Jacquizz Rodgers22-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.07