Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.091
- 47.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.192
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.89CPOE+5.71
- 43.1%Third-down rate44.9%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.17Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/50 | 341 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 7 | 11 | 123 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Mike Higgins | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/33 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.07